OnLive Is Going To Fail…

It shouldn’t do, but it probably will. In the battle of HD DVD vs Blu Ray, it’s really HD DVD vs Betamax, and Betamax is still going to win.The idea behind it is great. You have an exceedingly quick central processor running games, people sign up and don’t play the games using their hardware’s limitations, they just have the video stream from their superior technology to your device.  Which means that you could run Crysis 2 on a netbook, or in (what will probably be) a couple of months time… you could play games with better graphics than an Xbox 360, PS3 or high end PC with just your smartphone.

And what does it cost? Well, if you have a netbook, or PC, or a Mac… nothing. If you have a TV and an Internet connection, and you happen to live in America, it will cost you $99… and that comes with $50 worth of games credit. So, for twice the price of just one game, you get to play great games on your TV with a video steaming device, not a computer.

It’s brilliant… and it’s most likely going to fail.

Reason 1… Apple, Sony, Microsoft… even Steam have no reason to want it to succeed.  Which means that if it really does become a viable contender in the marketplace, you will probably find yourself in a situation where you can only play the game if it isn’t going to appear on Xbox or Playstation… or probably even Macs and PCs.  Which doesn’t leave a lot.

Reason 2… It’s PC based. Although you can run it on anything – the games themselves are PC games, and the pad looks pretty much like an Xbox pad… which ultimately means that you’re either going to be playing the ‘second thought’ PC versions of console games, or you’re going to be playing PC games with a joypad rather than a mouse and keyboard.  That’s only if you have bought the TV plug in… if you are using OnLive with a PC or Mac, you’re not likely to use a joypad. Which means that you’re always going to have a game that can be played with two control methods, which doesn’t make for great games.

Reason 3… Crysis 2 is not one of the launch games.  This may seem a tad petty, but this is the ‘killer app‘ that PCs have had – they have been able to throw around physics in a way that home consoles just couldn’t. If you could hook up your EEE PC to a friend’s wifi and show them that you’re playing Crysis 2… it would blow their minds and they would hook up to the system.  Showing them that they can spend £30 to digitally ‘own’ a copy of Batman: Arkham Asylum when they can pick it up for £15 pre-owned and then sell it on later isn’t going to get them to switch systems.

1. Lend it to your friends if you think it is cool.
2. Sell it on afterwards.
3. Put it on your shelves, so when people come round you can say ‘Look at all the cool games I have’!

Reason 6… They’re just not big enough. Both Sony and Microsoft struggled to launch a new console… and they only just managed, through what is probably now billions in investment. You get the sense that OnLive don’t have billions, or perhaps even millions. It’s kind of reminiscent of the Atari Jaguar… a good idea, with a good name and one good Jeff Minter game, that went nowhere fast. If you go to the OnLive website, or sign up with their service on another computer, you can order the box from them direct… but how do you know how to do that unless you’re already signed up? And if you’re already signed up, why do you want to spend extra to get a box for your TV.

The idea is fantastic! It’s like Steam, but whatever device you use, you just sign into your account and play your games, whether it’s at home, your work, your friends house… or maybe even your smartphone. It really is a bold idea of the future, and you never have to upgrade the technology, they just upgrade their servers for you. It really is the future now… but it just doesn’t have the support to be a success. Maybe it’s just a ploy to make the company more attractive before selling it on to Google for $2 billion, and we will see the ‘Google Games’ service hitting in three years times. For now, it’s free to try (and play trial games), it’s mind blowing… it really is the future now.  But the odds are that it will disappear in a puff of non interest before most people are even aware it existed – lost under a cloud of hype as to whether the new EA golf game will still be called Tiger Woods for the 2012 edition.